ODI | Think Change

What does security mean in a world where the nature of conflict is changing – and traditional alliances can no longer be taken for granted? As Europe faces rising geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over the future of the transatlantic alliance and a growing range of threats beyond conventional warfare, what should a smarter approach to security look like? From defence spending and deterrence to diplomacy, statecraft and the human costs of conflict, this episode explores how governments ...

As governments globally face growing pressure to raise revenue, amid concerns about inequality and who will have to contribute more, taxing the wealthiest is back at the centre of the debate both in national tax reforms and in international negotiations. In this episode, we bring together proposals for a coordinated global minimum tax on billionaires and data and evidence on how much tax they pay. We'll hear perspectives from African tax administrations on how they are strengthening existing ...

As world leaders gather in New York for the 81st Session of the High level UN General Assembly, questions about power, leadership and the future of international cooperation are high on the agenda. But what does meaningful leadership look like for people living through displacement? People with lived experience of displacement are often the furthest from the decisions that shape their lives, despite being best placed to understand what their communities need. While international institutions ...

What happens when communities are forced to govern themselves? Across conflict-affected contexts, communities are often doing far more than surviving the breakdown or failure of formal institutions. They are organising, delivering services, making decisions, representing their communities and creating new forms of governance - sometimes long before peace agreements are signed or states are rebuilt. In this episode of Think Change, we explore what makes these systems legitimate, how movements ...

Humanitarian crises are often understood through the lens of immediate need: more aid, more access and more funding. But ODI Global’s new report Oppression, Liberation and Humanitarianism in Palestine, Myanmar and Sudan argues that we must also understand the systems of power that produce and sustain suffering. In this episode of Think Change, guests Dustin Barter, Hala Al Karib and Athena Rayburn explore what humanitarian action can learn from movements of solidarity and resistance and what ...

This episode of Think Change explores the growing environmental footprint of artificial intelligence – from rising energy demand and emissions to the vast quantities of water needed to power and cool the data centres behind today’s AI revolution. As Europe experiences another summer of record-breaking heat, devastating wildfires and growing water stress, the race to develop and deploy AI raises urgent questions about how we balance technological progress with climate goals. Can the environmen...

Following Andy Burnham’s appointment as Britain's Prime Minister, there is renewed interest in what some have described as ‘Manchesterism’ – a political philosophy rooted in place, economic renewal and the belief that national prosperity begins with strong local communities. But if this approach were to shape government thinking, what could it mean beyond Britain’s borders? This episode explores whether a place-based politics could shift Britain’s foreign policy. Would international eng...

Across the world, a familiar story is being retold with striking success: that stagnant wages, housing crises and crumbling public services are the fault of migrants and outsiders - not the billionaires and global systems quietly getting richer. It's a story reshaping elections, hardening divisions, and in some places, fuelling violence. In this episode of Think Change, Sara Pantuliano is joined by Dimi Reider (Othering and Belonging Institute / Shared Futures Institute), Tania Cheung, Libby ...

Our first episode of Think Change, recorded in March 2022 just after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, explored how disinformation was shaping narratives around a fast-moving conflict. We asked who was producing it, how it spread through digital platforms, and how it influenced public understanding of war in real time. Three years on, to mark our 100th episode, we return to these same questions – which have become pivotal to understanding not only conflicts around the world but also interna...

The first-ever International Peacebuilding Week, which will run from 22-26 June, comes at a critical moment. Violent conflict is becoming more protracted, global cooperation is under strain, and climate shocks, displacement and weak institutions are compounding risks in some of the world's most fragile settings. Can a dedicated week for peacebuilding help shift the conversation from crisis response to long-term investment in peace? In this Think Change episode, guests discuss what it will tak...

Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are under growing pressure to prove their relevance in a world where development finance is becoming increasingly fragmented, financing needs are rising, and fiscal space is tightening across many countries. Governments are asking these institutions to deliver more finance, more quickly, and with greater efficiency and impact. MDBs are also in the middle of a far-reaching reform agenda – driven through successive G20 presidencies and shareholder processes...

At a moment of fiscal constraint and growing geopolitical fragmentation, international development is being reshaped in real time. This episode of Think Change explores the shift from aid to investment and the growing emphasis on partnerships across governments, development finance institutions, philanthropy, and the private sector. Recorded alongside the Global Partnerships Conference, we bring together four of the conference chairs to answer the following question: are we seeing a mea...

Recorded at the Women Deliver conference, this episode of Think Change – produced in partnership with GWL Voices – sets out the stakes for gender equality and multilateralism at a moment of deep geopolitical strain, and asks what the race for the next UN Secretary-General reveals about both. Recent rollbacks on gender rights and climate action are not isolated. They are part of a broader political project that mobilises “traditional values” and divisive narratives to hold onto power, weaken a...

For years, food systems transformation has been guided by shared global visions, grounded in the idea that sustainable food production and consumption are essential to a resilient, healthy and equitable future. But progress has stalled – and in some places it’s even gone into reverse. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), around 673 million people faced hunger in 2024. More than 2.3 billion experienced moderate or severe food insecurity, and 2.6 billi...

Mobilising private capital has become central to development finance and to the future of the International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group) itself. In this episode of Think Change, we unpack what private capital mobilisation actually means in practice, and why it has become such a defining measure of success. We explore the pressures facing the IFC, the changing expectations of global and institutional investors, and what’s really “in it” for the private sector as well as for developme...

How do wars actually end, and what does it take to make peace lasting and just? What lessons has the world still not learned about how wars end? In collaboration with Conciliation Resources, this episode reflects on what past conflicts can teach us about the pathways out of war, what current wars might tell us about the limits and possibilities of peacemaking today, and how peace processes can be designed to be not only durable but also just and inclusive. Looking ahead, we ask: in a wo...

Across many countries, legislative strategies are increasingly being used to roll back hard-won rights related to gender and bodily autonomy. This International Women's Day, we're asking: what can be done at national and multilateral levels to resist further erosion of sexual and reproductive rights worldwide? This episode explores the political and ideological forces behind the growing politicisation of Women's Sexual Health and Reproductive rights, the weaponisation of gender issues globall...

Why is abundant global capital is not translating into stronger productive investment, and what role the G20 can play in shaping a more resilient and sustainable capital flows framework in an increasingly fragmented global economy? Global finance has demonstrated considerable resilience despite persistent economic uncertainty, geopolitical tension and worsening debt dynamics. Capital flows and investment remain central to economic performance - particularly in emerging and developing economie...

Europe is again confronting war on its continent at a moment when old assumptions and rules about security are breaking down. Alliances feel less certain, deterrence less predictable, and responsibility more contested. Military-first, state-centric models of security are dominating the debate. But this narrow view doesn't capture the overlapping risks shaping the world Europe now faces – from conflicts and humanitarian crises to climate stress, tech disruption and deepening trust between majo...

A year into Trump’s second term, guests examine how India, China, Russia and other big powers are recalibrating strategies in a shifting global order. 2026 has already been marked by significant geopolitical upheaval. US military intervention in Latin America points to a wider trend: the return of a world order shaped by hard power, where rules and international law are increasingly sidelined. The international landscape is rapidly evolving. But how are other major powers responding? How is t...

As global leaders gather in Davos later this month amid shrinking aid budgets and hardening geopolitical priorities, development finance is being recast through the language of investment – raising urgent questions about who shapes this new model, who carries the risk, and who benefits. Development finance is entering a period of profound transition. Traditional aid models are under strain, squeezed by fiscal pressure, political fragmentation and shifting global priorities. In their place, in...

After a year of extraordinary upheaval, this special episode looks ahead to the forces set to shape 2026. From deep aid cuts and accelerating AI to renewed geopolitical tension, political violence and humanitarian catastrophe, guests explore what a fractured global landscape means for democracy, development and the future of international cooperation. 2025 has tested the resilience of the international system. Aid budgets have been slashed, debt pressures have mounted across low-income countr...

After one of the most challenging years for the humanitarian system, Sudan offers both a stark warning and a source of new thinking. This episode of Think Change examines how local actors are reshaping aid around solidarity, dignity and community leadership. Sudan’s crisis is unfolding at an extraordinarily difficult moment. Since violence escalated in April 2023, state institutions have collapsed, essential services have disappeared and millions have been displaced. Yet despite the scale of ...

Online misogyny is becoming a defining feature of digital life, amplified by algorithms and enabled by platforms that fail to protect users. As violence against women intensifies across online spaces, the stakes for gender equality and for democracy itself have never been higher. Violence online is surging at a moment when digital spaces should be becoming more inclusive. Algorithms reward outrage, platform design obscures abuse, and hostile online communities allow those who target women to ...

World leaders are heading to the Amazonian city of Belém this month for COP30, as Brazil aims to deliver the most consequential climate summit in years. This year’s negotiations come at a difficult moment. Concerns around trade relations and national security are dominating the political landscape, whilst a resurgence of disinformation has also pushed climate to take a back seat. But every five years, the Paris Agreement compels nations to reveal their progress and ambition. Brazil’s CO...

This episode examines the shifting landscape of Palestenian statehood as recognition spreads and new peace initiatives test the future of governance and diplomacy. Momentum around Palestinian self-determination is building. Following a landmark summit chaired by Saudi Arabia and France on the margins of last month's UN general Assembly, the UK formally recognised Palestine, with nine other countries soon following suit. At the same time, Donald Trump unveiled a 20-point plan for Gaza, proposi...

This episode examines the evolving role of philanthropy in shaping global development cooperation at a time when official aid is under strain. According to the European Network on Debt and Development (Eurodad), global official development assistance (ODA) hit a record $223.7 billion in 2023. But many governments are cutting back under pressure from debt, Covid recovery, and domestic priorities. At the same time, needs are exploding: climate adaptation could cost $300 billion a year by 2030, ...

From the suffragette movement and the fight against apartheid to today’s campaigns for climate justice and Palestine, what defines legitimate protest? And who gets to decide? This episode explores the contested politics of protest through history. We examine what happens when legal and political channels for change are blocked, and how states respond when protest challenges entrenched power. As politicians celebrate historic acts of civil disobedience while criminalising modern movements, we ...

The 80th UN General Assembly (UNGA 80) is under way at a time when the UN faces existential challenges. Established 80 years ago to safeguard peace, foster cooperation and uphold the rights and dignity of all people, today the very foundations of the UN’s mission are being tested by various global trends: intensifying geopolitical rivalries, the climate crisis, record levels of forced displacement, eroding trust in multilateralism, and a systematic disregard for international humanitarian law...

The soaring cost of capital for many low- and middle-income countries, particularly in Africa, is one of the most urgent and overlooked development challenges. High borrowing costs are hindering vital investments in energy, infrastructure, food security and public services – threatening development progress and deepening global inequality. But this decisive year for Africa could present opportunities for reform. South Africa is hosting the G20 Presidency – a first for an African country – whi...

Despite fractured politics in the US (and elsewhere) around foreign aid, Congress recently reauthorised plans to fund PEPFAR – the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief – even though the programme itself has not been formally reauthorised. Since being established in 2003, PEPFAR funding for prevention, care and treatment programmes is estimated to have saved over 26 million lives. It's one of the most successful global health initiatives, and against all odds it remains a symbol of bi...

The humanitarian system and its principles are being destroyed. Over 1,000 people have been killed seeking aid in the past weeks in Gaza, caught between famine and bullets. With humanitarian actors systematically prevented from reaching people affected by crisis in many contexts, governments are turning to the private sector – security firms, consultants, and ex-military operatives. From Gaza to Sudan to Myanmar, this shift raises urgent questions. Is a privatised model of humanitarianism goi...

This episode examines a challenge at the heart of development finance. Much energy is focused on mobilising more capital in low-income countries and emerging economies, but funding alone isn't enough. A deeper issue persists: there simply aren’t enough bankable projects – ventures that are ready to absorb investments at scale. Traditionally, development finance has been demand-led – waiting for the right opportunities to emerge. But this model is evolving. Some development institutions (DFIs)...

Climate disasters are intensifying globally, with vulnerable nations facing disproportionate impacts despite minimal contributions to global emissions. From prolonged droughts in East Africa to intensifying cyclones in the Pacific, these events reveal a troubling paradox: As the Expert Review on Debt, Nature and Climate demonstrates, countries must borrow to recover from disasters, yet face financial systems that: Penalise them for climate risks they didn't create Exacerbate ...

Climate impacts are continuing to intensify. More severe storms, droughts, floods and heatwaves are inflicting devastation on the most vulnerable communities – those who also bear the least responsibility for the climate crisis. But as the need for climate action becomes ever more urgent, international aid is retreating. USAID has been dismantled, whilst wealthy countries across Europe have slashed their aid budgets. This episode asks what the aid cuts mean for the most climate-vulnerable cou...

At a time of major geopolitical turbulence, Europe finds itself at a crossroads. Long regarded as a pillar of stability and multilateralism, the continent's role in today's increasingly divided world is being tested in numerous ways – as are its key institutions. There is a new fragility to Europe's external relationships – underscored by Trump's threats to impose tariffs on EU imports, and by disagreements on security guarantees for Ukraine. This episode dissects Europe's changing role and i...

Since 2011, Syria has been ravaged by conflict, foreign interventions and political fragmentation – leaving millions displaced and communities in crisis. But amidst the devastation, a new conversation is taking shape. Just months after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a new interim government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa has formed. A recent poll shows 70% of Syrians feel hopeful, but that hope is colliding with hard realities. More than 1,300 people – many believed to be civilians – have been...

Minerals like lithium, cobalt and rare earth are not just commodities. They are strategic assets which are shaping global power and the future of the energy transition. As US-China trade tensions escalate, countries across Africa (and elsewhere) where these minerals are found are now renegotiating their role in an increasingly fragmented global economy. This episode asks how Africa’s mineral wealth can truly benefit its people and future generations. Guests discuss the challenges countries fa...

With economic uncertainty, rising debt burdens, and a growing share of the world’s poorest people living in fragile contexts, the stakes for the upcoming 4th Financing for Development Conference (FfD4) in Seville have never been higher. According to a recent OECD report, the gap between development financing needs and available resources could reach $6.4 trillion by 2030 if the global financing system isn’t significantly overhauled. The conference in June present a pivotal opportunity to igni...

Development finance is no longer just about aid. It’s about power, priorities, and who gets to decide. For decades, institutions like the World Bank and IMF have set the agenda, with high-income countries holding the reins. But a shift is underway. Southern-led multilateral development banks (MDBs) – where borrowing nations are also the majority shareholders – are rewriting the rules. These banks, like CAF (Development Bank of Latin America) and the Trade and Development Bank (TDB) Group, bri...

Trade policies are more than economic levers. Today they are instruments of influence, competition and – at times – conflict. We have seen how Trump’s recent tariff hikes on Mexico, Canada and China have heightened geopolitical tensions. The global trade system is also undergoing a deeper transformation. Countries are diversifying supply chains and rethinking alliances. Regional trade agreements are gaining momentum. Take the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is vital ...

As the world shifts toward a more regionally driven order, where power and security are dictated by strength rather than law, multilateralism faces an existential crisis. This has been made strikingly clear by recent events in the US. Oscillating between retreat and selective engagement, the US now sees global cooperation in transactional terms – as a business not a shared responsibility. This shift has created uncertainty and left a vacuum. From Africa to Asia, nations are adapting. Some are...

Ukraine stands at a pivotal point as its war with Russia enters its third year. With high-stakes talks between the US and Russia taking place in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine finds itself excluded from crucial discussions, which raises alarms in Kyiv and Europe. As Western unity begins to fracture, the debate intensifies over whether to prioritise negotiations or continue military support. With NATO under increasing pressure, shifting US positions and growing concerns from Europe about future d...

For decades, US foreign aid has played a vital role in humanitarian assistance, development and global security. But last month, the US government – the world’s biggest aid donor – announced a sudden 90-day freeze on foreign aid. This will have a devastating impact on communities globally who depend on it to survive. It has triggered widespread uncertainty across the global development sector. In the days following the decision, the harm was already visible. Reports show that antiretroviral d...

Nearly a decade ago, nations worldwide committed to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with the first goal focused on ending poverty in all its forms by 2030. Whilst some progress has been made, we remain well off track to reach this ambitious target. Poverty reduction has stalled, whilst a new report by Oxfam – launched during the recent World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos – highlights how rising inequality is being driven by today’s colonial economic system. It finds ...

The term ‘fragility’ is used to describe various complex challenges including protracted conflicts, weak state capacity, and vulnerability to climate-related shocks. Development progress has been the hardest in these contexts. But the landscape is changing, with new development players emerging – notably in the private sector. Private capital is reaching frontier economies (those in low- and middle-income countries impacted by so-called fragility), fuelled by an impact investing market of mo...

Fast fashion has transformed how we consume clothing. A staggering 11.3 million tonnes of textile waste ends up in US landfills alone every year. This global fashion waste crisis has far-reaching consequences for the environment, economy and local communities. Sites which often appear like dumping grounds for unused goods can transform themselves into major sources of creativity and livelihoods. One such place is Kantamanto market in Ghana, a vibrant community and trading hub where wast...

2024 was a year of significant transitions – characterised by rapid technological progress, shifting geopolitical landscapes, and ongoing crises and conflicts. In this final episode of the year, we reflect on its defining moments and look ahead to the key trends likely to shape 2025. As the world becomes increasingly multipolar, the shift towards a more balanced global power structure brings both new perspectives and opportunities for collaboration. But this transition also presents challeng...

Since April last year, Sudan has been engulfed in a brutal civil war which has claimed over 150,000 lives, displaced over 11 million people and created acute food insecurity. It is arguably the world's most devastating conflict. So why, over 600 days on, is Sudan still not getting the media and international attention it needs? And what can be done to spur more recognition and action for the people of Sudan, at a time when other crises like those in Gaza and Ukraine dominate the headlines? ...

Our new Donors in a Post-Aid World (DPAW) dialogue series provides an informal space for reimagining the functions of Northern bilateral donors in an evolving global landscape. Last month, our first dialogue focused on creating a new narrative for Northern ‘donorship,’ identifying opportunities for a refreshed approach to development cooperation. This episode discusses key takeaways from the first dialogue. Guests examine the challenges Northern donor institutions face in a post-aid world, a...